Serbia relies on China for weapons as tensions with Kosovo rise
Belgrade military buildup spooks West while Chinese arms complicate NATO moves
HAMBURG, Germany -- Serbia's military is relying on Chinese arms suppliers as tensions ratchet up with its smaller neighbor Kosovo, seeking to fill the void left by Russian defense companies that are tooling up their own army against Ukraine.
Serbia's main Western arms suppliers -- France, Germany and the U.S. -- were surprised by an unprecedented military buildup along its border with Kosovo in late September. Serbia's move was triggered by an attack on the Kosovan police by local ethnic Serb armed groups.
Serbia and China also recently announced a second round of joint police patrols in cities in the Balkan state, a move considered inflammatory by some European politicians. Such patrols were initiated in 2019 with the declared aim of protecting Chinese tourists.
"To take such a step at a time of high tensions, and to import Chinese weaponry while threatening Serbia's neighbor state Kosovo with military aggression, sends a clear, but very unfortunate signal about where Serbia's leader [President Aleksandar] Vucic sees his allegiance: not with Europe, but with authoritarian regimes," said Reinhard Buetikofer, head of the European Parliament's delegation for European Union-China relations and a member of the German Greens, the party that oversees Germany's foreign and economic ministries.
Buetikofer has called for a European moratorium on arms sales to Serbia.
Kosovo sought independence from Serbia after the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Over 90% of Kosovo's population of 1.8 million is Albanian Muslim, while Serbs only make up 6%. But Serbia considers Kosovo its territory and waged a bloody war on it until a NATO military campaign ended the fighting.
Kosovo declared independence in 2008 but the government in Belgrade does not recognize it, even though the U.S., U.K. and many other countries do.
By early October, the Serbian army had withdrawn some of its troops from the border following White House warnings of a "very destabilizing" situation as calls for tougher action against Serbia grew louder among EU politicians.
Western misgivings were fueled by Serbia becoming the first operator of Chinese weapons systems in Europe last year when it imported the HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems and CH-92 armed drones from China.
These big-ticket items, worth $310 million, made China Serbia's top arms source in trade value in 2022, ending Russia's long dominance, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Russia's overall arms exports have been plummeting since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, with the war dragging on much longer than Moscow had anticipated.
Serbia's geographical position between Central Europe and Western Asia makes the country important for China's Belt and Road Initiative. China became Serbia's largest single-country investor by pumping in more than 700 million euros ($737 million) in 2021.
China sees Serbia as a gateway to penetrate the European market, with arms transfer being a notable facet of this partnership, said Daniel Sunter, executive director of Belgrade-based defense and security portal Balkan Security Network in Belgrade.
Serbia is not part of the EU but it does receive preferential trade terms with the bloc, which Sunter suggests Chinese entities are hoping to exploit.
"From Serbia's vantage point, Serbia's four-pillar policy, a pragmatic approach driven by the enduring Kosovo dilemma, aims to balance its relations with four major powers: the EU, the U.S., Russia and China," Sunter told Nikkei Asia.
"The acquisition of Chinese weapons systems is not an emblem of aggression or alignment, but a pragmatic move rooted in its four-pillar policy, armed forces modernization endeavors, and a [public relations] opportunity for the local political elite to underscore investments in national defense."
That Chinese defense companies are eagerly tapping into Serbia's market potential was demonstrated at the Serbian government-sponsored 11th International Armament and Military Equipment Fair held in Belgrade in late September.
China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corp. (CNPMIEC) displayed laser weapon systems, which use high-energy beams to strike incoming targets, including low-altitude and low-speed drones.
ELINC China pitched electronic warfare and counter-drone systems. Norinco Group presented anti-tank missiles and armored vehicles. CATIC showed the Wing Loong II surveillance and combat drone. CNPMIEC, ELINC and Norinco said that was their first exhibition at a Serbian defense event, according to U.S.-based Defense News.
Much of the business that Serbia gives these Chinese companies could be in upgrading existing military technologies that were based on Soviet-era designs, said Wendell Minnick, a Taipei-based defense analyst and publisher of the China in Arms newsletter.
"Serbia already has an impressive defense industry, which could be complemented with more advanced Chinese equipment that syncs with its types of weapons and equipment, particularly with retrofits and midlife upgrades," said Minnick.
Timothy R. Heath, senior international defense researcher at U.S.-based think tank RAND Corp., told Nikkei that Serbia's purchase of Chinese weapons will reduce NATO countries' willingness to sell arms to the country, as they add to Serbia's military advantage over Kosovo. NATO could also be deterred from intervening in the event of further provocation, given that China's modern HQ-22 surface-to-air missiles could effectively challenge its efforts to operate in the airspace.
"NATO may not be able to seize air superiority so easily in an intervention without destroying the missiles on the ground, which could raise the risks of an escalating conflict," Heath said.
"With Russia's defense industry consumed by the Ukraine war, China's defense relationship with Serbia could expand further in coming years," he added.